The Influence of Climate Teleconnections on Global Burned Area

Wildfires are known to be controlled by fuels and weather. Climate teleconnections may influence wildfires by altering fuel availability and fire weather. In this study, we used the random forest approach to systematically detect relationships between teleconnection climate indices (CIs) and burned area while accounting for different lag times. Results indicate that burned area is especially modulated by climate teleconnections in Africa and Australia. The Tropical Northern Atlantic (TNA) pattern was the most influential CI for the global burned area, followed by the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), and the Pacific–North American (PNA) pattern. To study pathways of how teleconnections affect the burned area, we distinguished two classes of fire drivers: bottom-up fuel availability and top-down weather conditions. Bottom-up fuel drivers showed higher correlation with CIs than top-down weather drivers and served as mediators between teleconnections and wildfires. The mediating effect of top-down weather drivers was only apparent in specific seasons. Our study highlights that in teleconnection-wildfire hotspot regions, knowledge of the relation between CIs and drivers of wildfires could improve long-term wildfire predictability. We recommend that bottom-up fuel drivers should also be integrated into wildfire predictive frameworks as they play an important mediating role in linking teleconnections and wildfires.