Development and use of a forecasting model for Cydia pomonella*

For more than 10 years, a forecasting model for Cydia pomonella in apple orchards, worked out by the French NPPO, has described the development of emergence cohorts in spring, and followed their development and descent, through the whole agricultural season. In homogeneous areas, this tool, still under development, can be used to define periods for effective treatment (ovicides, larvicides, mating disruption) and the tolerance for codling moth levels in various situations. Alternation of insecticides is provided for, so as to manage resistance phenomena. The reliability of the model is based on rigorous continuous biological checks on the forecasts made by the algorithm, on scientific surveillance by INRA and on regular collaboration between the advisers involved and the agrometeorological services. The model forms part of a wider decisional scheme, or expert system, in which the fruit grower and his adviser provide observations on the changes which cannot be provided by the model: installation of hail protection nets, night lights, fruit spreading. More parameters will be incorporated in future and the geographical validity of the model will be extended, particularly to more northerly areas.