Mistrust and Cross-Strait Provocations: The Implications of China’s Vision 2035 Hybrid Strategy for Taiwan’s National Interests

Since the Fifth Plenary Session of the 19th Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) in October 2020 that saw China outline its Vision 2035, increasing provocations have escalated tensions across the Taiwan Strait. While these latest incitements have been interpreted as part of President Xi Jinping’s resolve to take Taiwan by force, only now has the field begun to heed the broader implications of Beijing’s hybrid strategy for Taiwan’s national interests. Focusing on the increasing mistrust that is spurring a shift in strategies on both sides of the Strait, I explore how China’s continuing cross-strait provocations are harming Taiwan’s national interests, increasing the risks it faces, and diminishing its economic opportunities. Though neither China nor Taiwan stands a chance of achieving its desired objectives across the Taiwan Strait through force, China’s hybrid strategy that combines soft power with gray zone warfare leaves Taiwan’s national security, politics, and economy more vulnerable. This worsens both Taiwan’s statehood dilemma and international standing, further exposing its susceptibility to being used as a pawn in an Indo-Pacific chess game. To strengthen Taiwan’s de facto sovereignty without undermining the “one China” principle, this study suggests a form of trust building that prioritizes peaceful dialogue and robust para-diplomatic engagements.