Vulnerability of Firn to Hydrofracture, Part II: Greenland’s Ice Slab Regions

Hydrofracture and rapid lake drainage can transport surface meltwater to the bed of the Greenland Ice Sheet, thereby coupling surface mass balance processes and dynamic mass loss. Vertical hydrofracture is widely assumed to occur in the ablation zone, where abundant surface runoff that can fill fractures. However, in Greenland, the runoff line has expanded into the accumulation zone due to the development of ice slabs in the firn. It remains unclear whether surface runoff from these ice slab regions also drains locally to the bed. Recent observations in Northwest Greenland suggest that when meltwater penetrates ice slabs via surface fractures, it leaks off into a relict firn layer and does not initiate unstable vertical hydrofracture that propagates throughout the ice thickness. At the same time, buried supraglacial lakes have been observed to drain to the ice sheet bed this same region. Therefore, to assess the mass balance impact of ice slab expansion, it is important to understand if and when surface-to-bed hydrofracture may occur in these regions.In “Vulnerability of Firn to Hydrofracture, Part I: Poromechanical Modeling”, we developed an analytic expression for the maximum tensile effective stress within the firn layer beneath a water-filled fracture in an ice slab. Here we apply this model to Greenland’s ice slab regions. We use an ensemble of in situ and remote sensing observations to constrain the physical, mechanical, and hydraulic parameters in our model. We then run a Monte Carlo analysis to constrain the physically-plausible range of maximum tensile effective stress in the firn for two scenarios: a water-filled crevasse in an ice slab or a supraglacial lake over a fractured ice slab. Our results show that the maximum stress in the firn layer is always less than in an equivalent solid ice column, and typically remains compressive, because the imposed load is partially accommodated by a change in pore pressure. An overlying lake further stabilizes the system by increasing the lithostatic stress that acts to close the fracture. Therefore, in Greenland, the relict firn layer can be an important stabilizing factor that suppresses surface-to-bed hydrofracture under ice slabs, despite the abundance of both surface crevassing and meltwater.