Modelling the surface hydrology of George VI Ice Shelf, Antarctica

Remote sensing and modelling studies have shown several Antarctic Ice Shelves to be vulnerable to damage from surface meltwater. With surface melting predicated to increase, understanding the surface hydrology of ice shelves in the present and the future is an essential first step to reliably project future vulnerability of Antarctic ice shelves to meltwater driven hydrofracture. This has implications for sea level rise from ice sheet melt due to the loss of the buttressing effect provided by ice shelves on the grounded ice sheet. Here we present a surface hydrology modelling study focused on the George VI Ice Shelf on the Antarctic Peninsula. George VI is the second largest ice shelf remaining on the Antarctic Peninsula and experiences significant seasonal surface melt including the formation of surface lakes. We use MONARCHS: a 3-D model of ice shelf surface hydrology. MONARCHS is the first comprehensive model of surface hydrology to be developed for Antarctic ice shelves, enabling us to incorporate key processes such as the lateral transport of surface meltwater. This community-driven, open-access model has been developed with input from observations, and allows us to provide new insights into surface meltwater distribution on Antarctica’s ice shelves. This enables us to answer key questions about their past and future evolution under changing atmospheric conditions and vulnerability to meltwater driven hydrofracture and collapse. We solicit community feedback on future additions of new processes to the model, or case studies of interest.