Land Use Optimization and Simulation of Low-Carbon-Oriented—A Case Study of Jinhua, China

Land-use change is an important contributor to atmospheric carbon emissions. Taking Jinhua city in eastern China as an example, this study analyzed the effects on carbon emissions by land-use changes from 2005 to 2018. Then, carbon emissions that will be produced in Jinhua in 2030 were predicted based on the land-use pattern predicted by the CA-Markov model. Finally, a low-carbon optimized land-use pattern more consistent with the law of urban development was proposed based on the prediction and planning model used in this study. The results show that (1) from 2005 to 2018, the area of land used for construction in Jinhua continued to increase, while woodland and cultivated land areas decreased. Carbon emissions from land use rose at a high rate. By 2018, carbon emissions had increased by 1.9 times compared to 2015. (2) During the 2010–2015 period, the total concentration of carbon emissions decreased due to decreases in both the rate of growth in construction land and the rate of decline in a woodland area, as well as an adjustment of the energy structure and the use of polluting fertilizer and pesticide treatments. (3) The carbon emissions produced with an optimal land-use pattern in 2030 are predicted to reduce by 19%. The acreage of woodland in Jinhua’s middle basin occupied by construction land and cultivated land is predicted to reduce. The additional construction land will be concentrated around the main axis of the Jinhua-Yiwu metropolitan area and will exhibit a characteristic ribbon-form with more distinct clusters. The optimized land-use pattern is more conducive to carbon reduction and more in line with the strategy of regional development in the study area. The results of this study can be used as technical support to optimize the land-use spatial pattern and reduce urban land’s contribution to carbon emissions.