Forest Cover Dynamics in Ngarama North Forest Reserve, Kilwa District, Tanzania

Understanding forest cover dynamics is important for supporting Sustainable Forest Management strategies and implementing climate change mitigation policies. Remote sensing and geospatial analysis play a critical role in mapping and characterizing forest conditions in protected areas. In Tanzania, where management practices have evolved over decades, remote sensing is essential for assessing their effectiveness. Ngarama North Forest Reserve, which transitioned its management regime from the Forestry and Beekeeping Division (FBD) to the Tanzania Forest Service Agency (TFS), has been affected by this transformation. However, no prior study has evaluated the impact of this management shift on forest cover conditions. This study used Landsat imagery from 2000, 2010, and 2020 to classify forest cover via supervised image classification with the random forest algorithm on Google Earth Engine and monitored the rate of change in forest cover classes over time. Additionally, Key informant interviews and focus group discussions with forest officials and nearby forest communities provided insights into drivers of forest cover change, complementing the spatial data obtained. The results show that in 2000, the forest comprised 33.47% closed forest, 40.99% open forest, 21.61% bushland, and 3.94% bare land. By 2010, these proportions shifted to 16.19%, 57.30%, 23.47%, and 3.03% respectively. In 2020, the proportions changed again to 39.29%, 26.70%, 30.02%, and 3.99% respectively. These shifts suggest a complex interplay of environmental management, land use changes, and ecological responses. The key drivers behind these trends include illegal logging, uncontrolled wildfires, grazing, hunting, farming and natural factors. The findings of this study show that forest conditions have significantly improved over time due to the shift in management regime from FBD to TFS. This study provides crucial insights for sustainable forest management strategies and climate change mitigation policies by demonstrating the positive impact of management regime changes on forest conditions over time.