Outlook for Asia and Pacific: Recovery Unabated amid Uncertainty

Growth in Asia and the Pacific is projected to increase this year to 4.6 percent, up from 3.8 percent in 2022, an upgrade of 0.3 percent from the October 2022 World Economic Outlook. This means the region would contribute over 70 percent to global growth. Asia’s dynamism will be driven primarily by the recovery in China and resilient growth in India, while growth in the rest of Asia is expected to bottom out in 2023, in line with other regions. However, this dynamic outlook does not imply that policymakers in the region can afford to be complacent. The pressures from diminished global demand will weigh on the outlook. Headline inflation has been easing, but remains above targets in most countries, while core inflation has proven to be sticky. Although spillovers from turmoil in the European and US banking sectors have been limited thus far, vulnerabilities to global financial tightening and volatile market conditions, especially in the corporate and household sectors, remain elevated. Growth is expected to fall to 3.9 percent five years out, the lowest medium-term forecast in recent history, thus contributing to one of the lowest medium-term global growth forecasts since 1990.