Neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio trend: A novel prognostic predictor in patients with nasopharyngeal carcinoma receiving radiotherapy

Background Peripheral neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), reflecting immune-inflammation status, shows great potential for tumor progression and outcome. Pre-treatment NLR does not fully reflect the immune-inflammatory response to treatment. This study aimed to introduce the NLR trend as a new indicator and to investigate its prognostic value in patients with nasopharyngeal carcinoma receiving radiotherapy. Methods This retrospective study evaluated patients with nasopharyngeal carcinoma treated with radiotherapy. The NLR trend value was calculated from the fitted line gradient via the NLRs before, during (at least once), and after each patient's first radiotherapy. The Kaplan–Meier curve and log-rank test were used to calculate and compare survival outcomes of different pretreatment NLRs and NLR trends for progression-free survival, locoregional recurrence-free survival (LRFS), and overall survival at 3 and 5 years. Multivariate Cox regression analyses were performed to assess the association between the NLR trend plus 3- and 5-year overall survival. Results The study included 528 patients. A lower NLR trend predicted worse progression-free survival, LRFS, plus 3- and 5-year overall survival. Multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that the NLR trend independently predicted 3- and 5-year overall survival. Sub-group analysis showed that the prognosis of patients with a low pretreatment NLR and a high NLR trend were superior to those of other groups. Conclusion The NLR trend independently predicted the prognosis of patients with nasopharyngeal carcinoma receiving radiotherapy. The NLR trend and the pretreatment NLR combination is more precise than pretreatment NLR in predicting prognosis. A high NLR trend may be evidence of a positive immune response to radiotherapy in patients with nasopharyngeal carcinoma.