Predicting Primary Graft Dysfunction in Lung Transplantation: Machine Learning–Guided Biomarker Discovery

Abstract BACKGROUND There is an urgent need to better understand the pathophysiology of primary graft dysfunction (PGD) so that point-of-care methods can be developed to predict those at risk. Here we utilize a multiplex multivariable approach to define cytokine, chemokines, and growth factors in patient-matched biospecimens from multiple biological sites to identify factors predictive of PGD. METHODS Biospecimens were collected from patients undergoing bilateral LTx from three distinct sites: donor lung perfusate, post-transplant bronchoalveolar lavage (BAL) fluid (2h), and plasma (2h and 24h). A 71-multiplex panel was performed on each biospecimen. Cross-validated logistic regression (LR) and random forest (RF) machine learning models were used to determine whether analytes in each site or from combination of sites, with or without clinical data, could discriminate between PGD grade 0 ( n = 9) and 3 ( n = 8). RESULTS Using optimal AUROC, BAL fluid at 2h was the most predictive of PGD (LR, 0.825; RF, 0.919), followed by multi–timepoint plasma (LR, 0.841; RF, 0.653), then perfusate (LR, 0.565; RF, 0.448). Combined clinical, BAL, and plasma data yielded strongest performance (LR, 1.000; RF, 1.000). Using a LASSO of the predictors obtained using LR, we selected IL-1RA, BCA-1, and Fractalkine, as most predictive of severe PGD. CONCLUSIONS BAL samples collected 2h post-transplant were the strongest predictors of severe PGD. Our machine learning approach not only identified novel cytokines not previously associated with PGD, but identified analytes that could be used as a point-of-care cytokine panel aimed at identifying those at risk for developing severe PGD.