Operationally Closed Systems Develop Eigenbehaviour: From Learning Systems to Global Decarbonisation

Observed technology learning curves and decarbonisation of global economy appear as eigenbehaviour of a double-closed nontrivial machine that operates in the Onsager regime. When the machine remains isentropic and in equilibrium with its environment, theoretical learning and decarbonisation rates are 20% in agreement with observations. The theory understands eigenbehaviour from analysis of entropy and eigentime, and explains and computes observed deviations from the basic 20% rule due to shifting relations between the system and its environment. The comprehensive empirical evidence for the computed eigenbehaviours grounds observed learning curves and the global decarbonisation curve in well-established theory. The findings have implications for energy policy and for investigations of other operationally closed and history-bound systems. Contrary to recommendations from mainstream economic theory, the theoretically grounded learning curve legitimises government’s intervention in markets, for example, deployment programmes for low-carbon energy technologies. The chapter proposes the use of the theory to investigate the behaviour of Westphalian nation-states.