Analysis of Risk Factors in the Renovation of Old Underground Commercial Spaces in Resource-Exhausted Cities: A Case Study of Fushun City

Resource-exhausted cities have long played a key role in national energy development. Urban renewal projects, such as the renovation of old underground commercial spaces, can improve urban vitality and promote sustainable development. However, in resource-based cities, traditional industries dominate, while new industries such as modern commerce develop slowly. This results in low economic dynamism and weak motivation for urban development. To address this issue, we propose a systematic method for analyzing construction risks during the decision-making stage of renovation projects. The method includes three steps: risk value assessment, risk factor identification, and risk weight calculation. First, unlike previous studies that only used SWOT for risk factor analysis, we also applied it for project value assessment. Then, using the Work Breakdown Structure–Risk Breakdown Structure framework method (WBS-RBS), we identified specific risk sources by analyzing key construction technologies throughout the entire lifecycle of the renovation project. Finally, to enhance expert consensus, we proposed an improved Delphi–Analytic Hierarchy Process method (Delphi–AHP) to calculate risk indicator weights for different construction phases. The risk analysis covered all lifecycle stages of the renovation and upgrading project. The results show that in the Fushun city renovation case study, the established framework—consisting of five first-level indicators and twenty s-level indicators—enables analysis of renovation projects. Among these, management factors and human factors were identified as the most critical, with weights of 0.3608 and 0.2017, respectively. The proposed method provides a structured approach to evaluating renovation risks, taking into account the specific characteristics of construction work. This can serve as a useful reference for ensuring safe and efficient implementation of underground commercial space renovation projects in resource-exhausted cities.