Trend of deaths from external causes in Campinas, Brazil (2000-2017): Joint Point Regression Analysis

Abstract Introduction Deaths from external causes are caused by events or acute exposure to physical, chemicals agents or radiation; also due to the lack of essential agents for survival or injuries caused by oneself or others. The preventable nature of deaths from external causes has been pointed out mainly because there are related to violence. Objective To describe the trend and characteristics of mortality from external causes in the city of Campinas, São Paulo, Brazil from 2000 to 2017. Methods Descriptive, cross-sectional study. Information sources: The death mortality certificates from the Municipal Health Secretariat's Information System included in the chapter XX of the CID-10. Data analysis: External causes were divided into five groups: transportation, falls, suicides, homicides and others. The Standardized Mortality Coefficient (SMC) per 100,000 inhabitants was calculated taking as a reference the populations of the 2000 and 2010 censuses, stratified by age group and sex. The trend analysis for homicide was performed using a joinpoint regression model. Results In Campinas during the studied period occurred 12,175 deaths from external causes (80.4% male, 19.6% female). The most important causes of mortality for men were homicides (50%) and traffic accidents (27%) and for women it was falls (35%), traffic accidents (24%) and homicides (22 %). The SMC trend towards homicides shows a decrease in male events and stability in women homicides. It is noteworthy the lack of change in the trend of the female coefficient, regarding the male SMP, we identify three significant changes in the trend. Conclusions The decrease in the number of deaths from external causes in Campinas is principally due to the decrease in homicides in male population. The SMP was able to analyze deaths adjusted to the characteristics of the population, being an important tool for the analysis of deaths from external causes. Key messages In Campinas deaths from external causes are important causes of mortality. The Standardized Mortality Coefficient and joint point regression method are useful tools for the analysis of deaths from external causes.