Is there hope for the Hajj? Using the SIR Model to Forecast COVID-19 Progression in the City of Makkah

Abstract: Background: The Hajj is the largest annual gathering in the world, and it is a very important event for every Muslim. Makkah annually receives three million pilgrims who perform Hajj. Although precautionary measures have been taken in Saudi Arabia to slow down the spread of COVID-19, such as locking down the most affected cities, practicing social distancing, and applying the infection-control precautions, the number of cases has increased. The total confirmed number of cases in Makkah was 10,709 with 127 deaths as of May 16, 2020. Aims of the study: Forecasting the COVID-19 progression in the city of Makkah will help the policymakers decide if the Hajj will be able to operate this year. Thus, to see a clear picture of the fight against COVID-19 for the economy and healthcare industry in Saudi Arabia, specifically in Makkah, the SIR model will predict COVID-19 progression in the city of Makkah. Method: The Susceptible, Infected, and Recovered (SIR) model has been used to track the transmission dynamics and growth among the city of Makkah. The growth index was calculated, according to the data from March 16 until May 9. The estimated vital epidemiological parameters, such as forecasting works and transmission rates, were done. Result: The data showed an interesting result about the peak of the disease progression. It is projected to occur around the 12th day after running the model. According to the model, the peak time will be around the 22nd of May. Then, the number of cases will start to decrease. Conclusion: Using the SIR model, the result predicts the disease progression peak and an estimated end of COVID-19 in the city of Makkah to help the policymakers decide if the Hajj will be able to operate this year.