Analysis of Carbon Source/Sink Driving Factors Under Climate Change in the Inner Mongolia Grassland Ecosystem Through MGWR

Grassland ecosystems are essential components of the global ecosystem. They may efficiently reduce CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere and play a vital role in mitigating climate change. The objectives of this study were to reveal the spatial distribution features of net primary production (NPP) and net ecosystem productivity (NEP) under climate change in the Inner Mongolia grassland ecosystem, China, and to devise effective management strategies for grassland ecosystems. Based on the multiscale geographically weighted regression (MGWR) model, this study investigated the spatial variation features of NPP and NEP along with their driving factors. The results showed the following: (1) The annual average NPP in the Inner Mongolia grassland ecosystem was 234.22 gC⋅m−2⋅a−1, and the annual average NEP was 60.31 gC⋅m−2⋅a−1 from 2011 to 2022. Both measures showed a spatial pattern of high values in the northeast and low values in the southwest, as well as a temporal pattern of high values in summer and low values in winter. (2) The normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and solar radiation had promoting effects on NPP, where NDVI had the largest significant positive correlation area. In addition, precipitation and temperature on the influence of NPP were significantly negative with a larger area. (3) The area with a significant positive correlation of NDVI, solar radiation, and precipitation on NEP was larger than that with a significant negative correlation, while the area with significant negative correlation of temperature was larger. This study used the MGWR model to explore the relationship between NPP, NEP, and multiple factors. The results showed regional variation in NPP and NEP under the combined effect of various drivers. This contributes to a better understanding of carbon sinks under climate change in the Inner Mongolia grassland ecosystem.