Psychosocial Urban Stress, Motivational Readiness and Behavioural Feasibility: Longitudinal Evidence from HILDA on Fertility Decision-Making in Major Australian Cities

Abstract Background Declining fertility is an important demographic and public health concern, yet the role of psychosocial urban stress in fertility decision-making remains poorly understood. This study examined how financial stress, work-related stress, loneliness and time stress were associated with fertility intentions and subsequent fertility behaviour among women living in Australia’s major cities. Methods Longitudinal data from the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia Survey were analysed. The sample comprised 25,512 person-wave observations from 5,056 women aged 18–45. Ordinary least squares and pooled logistic regression models examined associations between psychosocial urban stress, fertility intentions and a birth by the subsequent survey wave. Karlson–Holm–Breen decomposition assessed the intention-related component of the stress–behaviour associations. Results Fertility intention strongly predicted subsequent fertility behaviour, with each one-point increase associated with 1.622 times higher odds of a subsequent birth. Loneliness was consistently associated with lower fertility intentions (β = −0.170), and its association with fertility behaviour attenuated after fertility intention was included. Time stress (odds ratio 0.908) and financial stress (odds ratio 0.936) remained negatively associated with fertility behaviour after adjustment for fertility intention, whereas work-related stress showed no independent association. The decomposition analysis provided no formal evidence of mediation through fertility intention. Conclusions Psychosocial urban stress was associated with fertility decision-making through differentiated pathways. Loneliness was more closely related to motivational readiness for parenthood, whereas time stress and financial stress were more closely related to the behavioural feasibility of translating fertility intentions into subsequent childbearing.