Blocked from the Ballot Box: Structural Obstacles Depress Turnout, Exacerbate Ballot Rejections Across Racial Lines

In our analysis of voter turnout and ballot rejections in battleground counties in the 2016, 2020, and 2024 general elections, we found evidence of what we refer to as electoral cumulative inequalities. For each of those years, majority-White precincts had significantly higher turnout than precincts of a majority group of color or that were racially plural, meaning having no majority race. While average turnout in majority-White precincts increased from 2016 to 2024 (peaking in 2020), average turnout in majority-Black and -Hispanic precincts decreased from 2016 to 2024. In majority-Black precincts, average turnout fell from 64 percent in 2016 to 50 percent in 2024. In majority-Hispanic precincts, average turnout decreased from 55 percent in 2016 to 53 percent in 2024. Further, in analyses controlling for state and county effects, the negative effect on turnout of residing in a majority-Black or -Hispanic precinct increased over time. Living in a majority-Black precinct was estimated to decrease the likelihood of voting by 11 percentage points in 2016 compared to living in a majority-White precinct, but in 2024, that figure was 22 percentage points. Living in a majority-Hispanic precinct was estimated to decrease the likelihood of voting by 16 percentage points in 2016; in 2024, that figure rose to 26 percentage points. Racially plural precincts and those with higher Black, Hispanic, and Native populations were more likely to have higher rates of ballot rejections than majority-White precincts in all three election years. Moreover, we found that voters living in low-turnout precincts were more likely to have their ballots rejected in the 2016, 2020, and 2024 general elections. These findings suggest that ballots not cast and ballots cast but not counted are correlated and concentrated in certain precincts. That is, communities with lower rates of turnout also experience higher rates of ballot rejections, and as a result, these communities’ political representation is diminished compared to those communities with high turnout and low rejection rates. From 2016 to 2024, the percentage of majority-White precincts in the high-incidence category of ballot rejections remained fairly stable—around 23–25 percent. The percentage of majority-Black precincts in the high-incidence category was about 45 percent in 2016, decreased to about 35 percent in 2020, and was 47 percent in 2024. The percentage of majority-Hispanic precincts in the high-incidence category decreased from 2016 to 2024—from about 65 percent in 2016, to some 50 percent in 2020, and finally, to 58 percent in 2024.