Climate vulnerability scenario of the agri-fishery communities in the Bicol River Basin, Philippines

Abstract This paper investigated the vulnerability of the agriculture sector and rural agri-fishery livelihoods in the Bicol River Basin (BRB) in the Philippines to projected changes in climate. The geographical characteristics of the BRB features eight major sub-basins or watersheds consisting of Libmanan-Pulantuna, Ragay Hills, Thiris, Naga-Yabo, Pawili River, Waras-Lalo, Naporog, and Quinali. The study adopted the Climate Risk Vulnerability Assessment (CRVA) which employed geospatial modelling through the use of geographic information systems (GIS) data, briefly, a number of indicators which are presumed to affect vulnerability were used including exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity which were aggregated to provide an index of vulnerability. These components were integrated and modelled using GIS by identifying exposure to natural hazards, assessing the sensitivity of major crops to climate variations using ecological model (MaxEnt) under high emission climate scenario (RCP8.5), and identifying key aspects of adaptive capacity. Additionally, we also analyzed the perception of stakeholders towards vulnerability using participatory approaches. This enabled us to identify areas of exposure and vulnerability, and pointed areas of greatest need for strengthened adaptive capacity and risk management. Our findings suggested that majority of the towns in the north and central portions of the BRB will largely experience increased vulnerability, particularly, in the Thiris sub-basin including some parts of Ragay Hills, Waras-Lalo and the northwestern Libmanan-Pulantuna sub-basins. On the contrary, the entire Quinali sub-basin in the south revealed to have the lowest vulnerability index. The information derived from the study can be utilized to reinforce local-based climate policies.