Combining long-term visitor and avalanche hazard monitoring to support risk management in winter mountain tourism: a case study of the Tatra Mountains, Poland

Winter nature-based tourism is a vital segment of the tourism industry, offering unique activities like ski touring, snowshoeing, winter hiking, or ice climbing. These activities not only provide recreational opportunities but also foster a deeper appreciation for winter landscapes and natural environments. Beyond its economic value, winter tourism promotes environmental awareness, nature conservation values, along with physical and mental well-being. However, challenges such as managing avalanche risks and ensuring tourist safety require understanding of both: 1) avalanche hazards and 2) visitors’ behaviour in order to introduce effective risk management strategies.Therefore, our study aims to investigate determinants of avalanche risk and support preparedness planning, based on systematic long-term visitor and avalanche hazard monitoring in the Tatra National Park, Poland. Our work is based upon empirical data which comprise following datasets: 1) avalanche accidents records, 2) daily visitor counts, 3) daily meteo data, 4) daily avalanche danger scale in the winter seasons from 2018/19 to 2023/24. Avalanche accidents records were obtained from the mountain rescue database (TOPR) and included anonymized information on date, place, avalanche danger level, type of accident, number of affected people and the consequences of the accident. Visitor counts (grouped by recreation activity) were systematically collected at the entrance points to the Tatra National Park. Meteorological data contained measurements from 2 meteo stations located in the Tatra National Park: Kasprowy Wierch (1989 m a.s.l.) and Hala Gasienicowa (1508 m a.s.l.). Daily avalanche danger level was obtained from TOPR avalanche bulletin.Our results show that visitation volumes ranged between 8’000 – 40’000 per winter season and have gradually increased in recent years. Dominant winter nature-based recreational activities were hiking (incl. snowshoeing), followed by ski touring. Climbing and speleology were the least frequent winter outdoor activities. Significant increase in nature-based winter activities was observed during COVID-19 pandemic (2021). During this time especially, ski touring visits increased by 400% in comparison to the 5-year average before the COVID-19 pandemic. Visits took place mainly on the weekends. Weather and avalanche risk level had less influence on visitation numbers.To conclude, systematic long-term monitoring of avalanche risk determinants is necessary to develop successful risk management strategies. Combing knowledge on physical environmental conditions like snowpack, weather and human factors is critically important to address winter tourism risks and to improve safety outcomes in mountain destinations.