Multiple indicators of gut dysbiosis predict all-cause and cause-specific mortality in solid organ transplant recipients

Objective Gut microbiome composition is associated with multiple diseases, but relatively little is known about its relationship with long-term outcome measures. While gut dysbiosis has been linked to mortality risk in the general population, the relationship with overall survival in specific diseases has not been extensively studied. In the current study, we present results from an in-depth analysis of the relationship between gut dysbiosis and all-cause and cause-specific mortality in the setting of solid organ transplant recipients (SOTR). Design We analysed 1337 metagenomes derived from faecal samples of 766 kidney, 334 liver, 170 lung and 67 heart transplant recipients part of the TransplantLines Biobank and Cohorta prospective cohort study including extensive phenotype data with 6.5 years of follow-up. To analyze gut dysbiosis, we included an additional 8208 metagenomes from the general population of the same geographical area (northern Netherlands). Multivariable Cox regression and a machine learning algorithm were used to analyse the association between multiple indicators of gut dysbiosis, including individual species abundances, and all-cause and cause-specific mortality. Results We identified two patterns representing overall microbiome community variation that were associated with both all-cause and cause-specific mortality. The gut microbiome distance between each transplantation recipient to the average of the general population was associated with all-cause mortality and death from infection, malignancy and cardiovascular disease. A multivariable Cox regression on individual species abundances identified 23 bacterial species that were associated with all-cause mortality, and by applying a machine learning algorithm, we identified a balance (a type of log-ratio) consisting of 19 out of the 23 species that were associated with all-cause mortality. Conclusion Gut dysbiosis is consistently associated with mortality in SOTR. Our results support the observations that gut dysbiosis is associated with long-term survival. Since our data do not allow us to infer causality, more preclinical research is needed to understand mechanisms before we can determine whether gut microbiome-directed therapies may be designed to improve long-term outcomes.