Population Ageing and Educational Digitalisation in Western Europe and Younger Economies

Abstract This study examines the extent to which population ageing influences the capacity of educational systems to digitalise and adopt new technologies, contributing to the emerging literature on the grey digital divide (the digital exclusion experienced by older adults). Focusing on a comparative analysis of 12 countries (sixWestern European economies characterised by ageing demographic structures and six younger economies) the paper investigates whether demographic composition affects both the speed and effectiveness of digital transformation in education. Drawing on theoretical arguments linking ageing societies to lower technological adaptability, institutional inertia, and competing fiscal pressures, the study also considers the counterargument that more economically developed countries with ageing populations may offset these constraints through stronger financial and institutional capacities. Using panel data for the period 2001-2023, which encompasses both pre- and post-pandemic digital acceleration, the analysis explores the relationship between demographic ageing indicators and measures of educational digitalisation, proxied by internet usage as an indicator of broader digital readiness. The results reveal a non-linear and conditional relationship between population ageing and educational digitalisation. While ageing is positively associated with digitalisation when considered in isolation, this effect is significantly moderated by economic development. In more advanced economies, ageing may act as a constraint on further digital transformation, whereas in less developed contexts the relationship appears less restrictive. Digital infrastructure, measured by broadband access, emerges as a critical determinant of digitalisation, whilst public expenditure on education and research and development show statistically insignificant effects. The findings contribute to the literature on education systems and digital transformation by offering a comparative and conditional perspective on demographic influences, with important implications for policy design in ageing societies. The findings suggest that investments in digital infrastructure and targeted digital inclusion policies play a more significant role in addressing digital inequalities than increases in aggregate education expenditure alone, underscoring the importance of inclusive strategies for achieving equitable digital transformation in ageing societies. Methodologically, the study demonstrates the importance of modelling interaction effects to capture the conditional nature of demographic influences on digital transformation, moving beyond linear interpretations prevalent in earlier research.