Framework for a Prospective Criticality Assessment with ESSENZ

While criticality assessment frameworks aim to support strategic decision-making, their predominantly static nature limits their ability to reflect the temporal dynamics of resource availability. This paper presents a conceptual framework for integrating temporal aspects into the criticality assessment method ESSENZ following a four-step approach. First, the ESSENZ methodology is analyzed to identify temporal dependencies. Second, the economic categories are qualitatively classified into temporal archetypes. Third, categories with available time-series (1998-2023) are quantitatively assessed. Finally, the findings are synthesized into a conceptual framework. The categories exhibit heterogeneous temporal dynamics. Governance and production concentration, for example, show high lag-1 autocorrelation (0.70–0.78) and slow structural change, indicating an inertial archetype. In contrast, the Policy Perception Index shows more volatility (autocorrelation 0.27), suggesting that it is less suitable for deterministic forecasting. Based on these findings, we propose a conceptual Prospective ESSENZ framework. It distinguishes category-material-combinations into three types: (1) near static; (2) inertial; and (3) volatile categories. By restricting scenario dependence to the most volatile categories, this approach reduces data requirements while minting sensitivity to those categories where future developments are least predictable. This provides a methodological basis for integrating temporal dynamics into ESSENZ and supporting prospective criticality assessments.