Effect of HIV infection on COVID-19 Cytokine Release Syndrome and Mortality

Introduction: Established predictors for COVID-19 related mortalities are diverse, with cytokine release syndrome (CRS), a key intermediator to the case fatalities being dominant and multi-faceted. The impact of these several risk factors on coronavirus mortality have been previously reported in several meta‐analyses limited by small sample sizes and premature data, and CRS not fully being accounted for. The objective of this systematic review and meta-analysis was to evaluate the evidence on the risk of COVID-19 related CRS and mortality with HIV serostatus using published data, and a meta-regression to account for possible covariates. Method: Electronic databases including Google Scholar, Cochrane Library, Web of Sciences (WOS), EMBASE, Medline/PubMed, COVID-19 Research Database, and Scopus, were systematically searched till 30th February, 2022. All human studies were included irrespective of publication date or region. Twenty-two studies with a total of 19,783,097 patients detailing COVID-related mortality and eleven with a total of 2,005,274 were included. To pool the estimate, a random-effects model with risk ration as the effect measure was used. Moreover, publication bias and sensitivity analysis were evaluated followed by meta-regression. The trial was registered (CRD42021264761) on the PROSPERO register. Results: The findings were consistent in stating the contribution of HIV infection for COVID-19 related CRS and mortality. The cumulative COVID-19 related mortality and CRS was 110270 (0.6%) and 48863 (2.4%) with total events of 2010 (3.6%), 108260 (0.5%) and 837(4.6%), 48026 (2.4%) among HIV-positive and negative persons respectively. HIV infection showed an increased risk of COVID-19 related CRS and mortality [RR= 1.48, 95% CI (1.16, 1.88) (P=0.002)] and [RR =1.19, 95% CI (1.02 -1.39) (P=0.00001)] respectively, both with substantial heterogeneity (I2 > 80%). The true effects size in 95% of all the comparable populations fell between 0.64 to 2.22 and 0.67 to 3.29 for mortality and CRS respectively. MC studies and COVID-19 mortality with HIV infection showed a significant association [RR = 1.305, 95% CI (1.092 -1.559) (P = 0.003)], similar to studies conducted in America (RR = 1.422, 95% CI 1.233–1.639) and South Africa (RR = 1.123, 95% CI 1.052–1.198). HIV infection showed a risk for ICU admission [(P=0.00001) (I² = 0%)] and mechanical ventilation [(P=0.04) (I² = 0%)] as parameters of CRS. Furthermore, risk of COVID-19 related CRS is influenced by the year a study was conducted (R² = 0.55) and the region (R² = 0.11) same for mortality (R² = 0.60). The variance proportion explained by covariates was significant for CRS (I² = 86.5%, Q = 73.99, df = 10, P = 0.0000) (R² = 0.78) and mortality (I² = 87.5%, Q = 168.02, df = 21, p = 0.0000) (R² = 0.67). Conclusion: Our updated meta-analysis indicated that HIV infection was significantly associated with an increased risk for both COVID-19 – CRS and mortality, which might be modulated by regions, study setting and year. Risk for ICU admission and mechanical ventilation are the key indicators of CRS. We believe the updated data further anchoring CRS will contribute to more substantiation of the findings reported by similar earlier studies (Dong et al., 2021; K. W. Lee et al., 2021; Massarvva, 2021; Mellor et al., 2021; Ssentongo et al., 2021)