Michigan’s Automotive Workforce Transition

This report examines how changes in automobile production, specifically the shift from internal-combustion-engine (ICE) vehicles toward hybrids and battery-electric vehicles (BEVs), are likely to affect employment in Michigan’s automotive manufacturing and distribution system over the next decade. The goal is to quantify how many jobs in Michigan depend on the automotive supply chain today, how that employment has evolved since the early 2000s, and how it may change through 2030 under alternative production-and-demand scenarios. The results are intended to inform the workforce planning and community transition strategies of the Michigan Department of Labor and Economic Opportunity’s Community and Worker Economic Transition Office. To do this, we first define the automotive supply chain as a set of 38 North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) industries, organized into 3 functional stages and 10 analytic segments. We then estimate the share of each industry that is genuinely automotive dependent, using the Impact Analysis for Planning (IMPLAN) Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) data, establishing a 2024 baseline of auto-attributed employment. Next, we project industry employment forward by applying forecast growth rates from Moody’s Analytics’ Michigan outlook to our 38 industries and rolling the results into segments and stages. Finally, we link industries to occupations using Michigan occupational staffing patterns published by the state of Michigan to describe how the occupational mix of the automotive workforce may change, with particular attention to differences by education and training requirements.