Relationship between pancreatic cancer resection rate and survival at population level: systematic review

Abstract Background Surgery combined with chemotherapy provides the best chance of survival in pancreatic cancer. This study investigated whether increasing the resection rate at a population level improves overall survival and modelled the interaction between resection rate, perioperative mortality rate, and population survival. Methods A systematic review was conducted on studies reporting resection rate and survival outcomes in patients with pancreatic cancer at a population level. MEDLINE, Embase and Evidence-Based Medicine Reviews were searched up to February 2024. The primary outcome was overall population-level survival. A model for 1-year survival incorporating varying resection and perioperative mortality rates was developed. Results The search identified 3967 studies; 19 were eligible (516 789 patients). A significant association was observed between resection rate and pancreatic cancer population survival at 1 year (r2 = 0.46, P = 0.001). A weak but significant association was noted between resection rate and (neo)adjuvant chemotherapy (r2 = 0.26, P = 0.03). One-year pancreatic cancer population survival was significantly associated with chemotherapy (r2 = 0.63; P = 0.004), but the effect was weaker than for resection rate (regression slope 0.26 versus 0.94 respectively). According to the developed model, for example, increasing the resection rate from 10 to 15% and perioperative mortality rate from 2 to 3% would lead to a 1-year survival increase from 17.6% to 22.1%. Conclusion A higher resection rate at a population level was associated with improved survival of the pancreatic cancer population. While some of this benefit was linked to increasing (neo)adjuvant chemotherapy use, the effect of resection rate was stronger. Strategies to enhance the resection rate at national and regional levels should be explored. Establishing a benchmark for resection rate could support patient-centred healthcare and promote equitable access to high-quality pancreatic cancer care.