The Broken Promise

This chapter analyzes coups that begin with promises of democratic rule but end with the establishment of dictatorship. Some coup makers lose their enthusiasm for democracy for irrational reasons. A successful victory against a dictator can foster self-indulgent fantasies about future possibilities. Although plenty of military leaders irrationally prefer dictatorship out of ignorance or ego, others choose dictatorship in a rational decision-making process. Although the costs of authoritarianism outweigh its benefits for many militaries, for some militaries, that calculus may be reversed. For example, the coup makers may believe that a loyalist dictator will benefit them more than democratic rule. Particularly when they’re confident the dictator will stay loyal to their interests for the long term, the coup makers may throw their support behind a dictator, as opposed to subjecting their future to the vagaries of democratic politics.