Predicting Land use and land cover spatiotemporal changes utilizing CA-Markov model in Duhok district between 1999 and 2033

AbstractTHE PROCESS OF SPATIOTEMPORAL CHANGES IN LAND USE LAND COVER (LULC) AND PREDICTING THEIR FUTURE CHANGES ARE HIGHLY IMPORTANT FOR LULC MANAGERS. ONE OF THE MOST IMPORTANT CHALLENGES IN LULC STUDIES IS CONSIDERED TO BE THE CREATION OF SIMULATION OF FUTURE CHANGE IN LULC THAT INVOLVE SPATIAL MODELING. THE PURPOSE OF THIS STUDY IS TO USE GIS AND REMOTE SENSING TO CLASSIFY LULC CLASSES IN DUHOK DISTRICT BETWEEN 1999 AND 2018, AND THEIR RESULTS CALCULATED USING AN INTEGRATED CELLULAR AUTOMATA AND CA-MARKOV CHAIN MODEL TO SIMULATE LULC CHANGES IN 2033. IN THIS STUDY, SATELLITE IMAGES FROM LANDSAT7 ETM AND LANDSAT8 OLI USED FOR DUHOK DISTRICT WHICH IS LOCATED IN THE NORTHERN PART OF IRAQ OBTAINED FROM UNITED STATES GEOLOGICAL SURVEY (USGS) FOR THE PERIODS (1999 AND 2018) ANALYZED USING REMOTE SENSING AND GIS TECHNIQUES IN ADDITION TO THE GROUND CONTROL POINTS, FOR EACH CLASS 60 GROUND POINTS HAVE TAKEN. TO SIMULATE FUTURE LULC CHANGES FOR 2033, INTEGRATED APPROACHES OF CELLULAR AUTOMATA AND CA-MARKOV MODELS UTILIZED IN IDRISI SELVA SOFTWARE. THE OUTCOMES DEMONSTRATE THAT DUHOK DISTRICT HAS EXPERIENCED A TOTAL OF 184.91KM CHANGES DURING THE PERIOD (TABLE 4). THE PREDICTION ALSO INDICATES THAT THE CHANGES WILL EQUAL TO 235.4 KM BY 2033 (TABLE 8). SOIL AND GRASS CONSTITUTES THE MAJORITY OF CHANGES AMONG LULC CLASSES AND ARE INCREASING CONTINUOUSLY. THE ACHIEVED KAPPA VALUES FOR THE MODEL ACCURACY ASSESSMENT HIGHER THAN 0.93 AND 0.85 FOR 1999 AND 2018 RESPECTIVELY SHOWED THE MODEL’S CAPABILITY TO FORECAST FUTURE LULC CHANGES IN DUHOK DISTRICT. THUS, ANALYZING TRENDS OF LULC CHANGES FROM PAST TO NOW AND PREDICT FUTURE APPLYING CA-MARKOV MODEL CAN PLAY AN IMPORTANT ROLE IN LAND USE PLANNING, POLICY MAKING, AND MANAGING RANDOMLY UTILIZED LULC CLASSES IN THE PROPOSED STUDY AREA