The Technology Theory of Victory

This chapter discusses the technology theory of victory. A theory of victory is an intellectual concept that describes how military organizations can prevail in war. It reflects intuitions or folk theories about what war will be like and how militaries will fight it. Concepts may be codified in doctrinal manuals and strategy documents, or they may just be shared beliefs in a military community of practice. The technology theory of victory has run afoul of operational and political problems. Decades of effort to substitute information for mass have culminated in cyberwarfare and drone operations, but decisive victory remains elusive. New variants of technology theory are already emerging in response to advances in machine learning, embedded computing, and quantum computing. Skeptics have highlighted numerous practical and conceptual shortcomings of technology theory. Scholars have offered more nuanced perspectives on the social factors that shape the adoption and employment of material capabilities. The chapter argues that all of these different strands of debate reflect different perspectives on the same underlying phenomenon: the historically increasing complexity of information practice.