Consumed by Conspiracy? Individual and Social Risk Factors for Violent Radicalization

Conspiracy theories threaten Western society’s cohesion and democracy (AIVD, 2023). Yet, little is known about who’s vulnerable to conspiracy-motivated violent radicalization, which is essential for effective prevention. This study explored whether subgroups at risk for conspiracy-motivated violent radicalization could be identified in a Dutch sample (N = 709) and whether demographic characteristics and risk factors were associated with profile membership. Latent-profile analyses unveiled five profiles named: the general population (82%; with low indicator levels overall) and the conspiracists (10%) who had high conspiracy belief, conspiracy exposure, and radical attitudes, but low radical behavior. Three smaller profiles with elevated radical behavior emerged: the violent experimenters (6%), vandalists (1%), and the extremely violent (1%). Conspiracy theories were only elevated for some with heightened radical behavior. Overall, younger males in criminogenic or extreme right-wing environments, lacking tertiary education, with poor school performance, and an ideologically-driven crime history, seemed to face heightened violent radicalization risks. Criminogenic risk factors differentiated conspiracists from the more violently radical profiles, while social risks factors were shared. Integrating evidence-based strategies for anti-crime interventions into anti-radicalization efforts may help curb conspiracy-motivated radical behavior (Jugl et al., 2021).