Prediction of carbon peak in Tacheng, China, based on the LEAP model

Abstract As carbon emissions are the major cause of global warming, several researchers have focused on formulating regional emission reduction paths. This study measured the energy carbon emissions in Tacheng, Xinjiang, China, using the emission coefficient method. The long-range energy alternatives planning (LEAP) model was combined with the scenario analysis method to simulate the carbon emissions, predict the carbon peak time and carbon emission peak, and analyze the carbon peak realization path in Tacheng for 2021–2035. The results showed that the scheduled carbon peaking goal could be achieved only when emission reduction measures were jointly implemented in the energy-saving, green electricity, and industrial structure adjustment scenarios. Moreover, during the 14th Five-Year Plan, pressures will increase on energy consumption and carbon emission control. Further, pressures on the industry, service, and transportation sectors to reduce emissions were significantly greater than that on the agricultural and household sectors. The pressure of carbon peak in the agricultural sector was relatively small. Further, the average emission reduction potential of industrial, agricultural, service, household, and transportation sectors was 23.75%, 8.55%, 29.07%, 24.82%, and 13.82%, respectively. During the 14th Five-Year Plan, energy-saving and emission reduction measures should be employed in the industrial and service sectors. The average emission reduction potentials of coal, oil, and gas as energy sources indicated that reducing coal consumption and increasing the energy efficiency are key carbon peaking measures in Tacheng. Based on the results, several suggestions were proposed to reach the carbon peak and neutrality goals in Tacheng possibly countries as well.