Black Sea Region in World Policy: Actors, Factors, and Scenarios of the Future

Political, economic and cultural borders are usually different from geographical ones; this also applies to the Black Sea region. Only six countries border the Black Sea: Bulgaria, Romania, Ukraine, Russia, Georgia and Turkey. But the Charter of the Organization of Black Sea Cooperation (BSEC) was also signed by Albania, Moldova, Azerbaijan, Armenia and Greece. Moldova can be geographically considered a part of the Black Sea region, as it is located between Ukraine and Romania and is close to the Black Sea. Greece is close to the mouth of the Bosporus, which connects the Black and Mediterranean Seas. Armenia does not border the Black Sea, but is located near it. Two other countries are located on the shores of other seas connected to the Black Sea by many waterways: Azerbaijan (via the Caspian) and Albania (via the Adriatic). Therefore, the definition of the Black Sea is based on the signing of the BSEC, which laid the foundation for modern economic and political relations between 11 countries in the region. However, the relevance of this monograph is primarily due to the fact that the BSEC has not become the main field of interaction for the Black Sea states. On the contrary, its current state can be bluntly described as “comatose”. Therefore, this collective monograph is devoted, firstly, to identifying the behaviour of the main systemic and non-systemic actors that determine the development of the regional system of the Black Sea region, and, secondly, to identify factors that affect these actors in order to predict their behaviour in the medium term. The purpose of the monograph is to identify the causes of the decline of the Black Sea regional system. The research dilemma can be formulated as follows: to what extent is this decline the result of the actions of the two regional leaders, Turkey and the Russian Federation, and to what extent is it due to non-systemic actors? Among the tasks is the identification of modern theoretical approaches that most adequately help to build a study of the dynamics of the Black Sea region. Also included in these tasks is the the identification of the following features: a) the policy of Turkey and Russia as regional leaders of the Black Sea region, b) the policies of the EU and NATO as the most influential international organizations, and c) the policies of China and Japan as non-systemic actors whose influence on the Black Sea is constantly growing. The concepts of systemic and non-systemic actors are critically important for this monograph. Therefore, a systematic approach was chosen for the study, which in turn provided an opportunity to: 1) consider the object under study (the Black Sea) as a complex system of input and output signals, 2) to establish the connection of the system with its environment (world politics, which is manifested in the politics of major world actors), and to 3) specify the object of study (the Black Sea) as a system that is limited by internally defined relationships between elements. A systematic approach to the phenomenon includes the analysis of: 1) the elements that make up the system, 2) the patterns of the origin and development of the phenomenon, 3) its evolution, 4) the reasons for the changes, and 5) the essence and laws of its development. The application of the systems approach first enabled the division of the Black Sea into a number of subsystems (including lower level systems, such as regional leaders, EU newcomers, New Eastern Europe, and the South Caucasus), and then allowed for an analysis of the harmonization of each subsystem within the overall purpose of the system. It further allowed for a final construction of a systemic hierarchy, and the hierarchy of factors which make up this system and contribute to its functioning. A prominent place in the study is given to the study of direct and feedback relations of the Black Sea with the EU, NATO, China and Japan, which constitute the environment of the regional system under study. Additional research methods were chosen, namely the prognostic method and the case study method; the selection of these methods provides for an opportunity not only to investigate individual cases, but also to apply the acquired knowledge in further scientific research on other cases. Scenario construction is a means of forecasting, which is used to predict the development of political events. This establishes a logical sequence of events, based on an existing or given situation. The scenarios focus on the connections between events and on the critical points where the effects can actually have an impact on the situation. Therefore, a study of the Black Sea’s place in world politics would be incomplete without trying to provide potential scenarios for the coming decades. The monograph focuses on the various developing relations in the Black Sea region, which over the years have been researched by the staff of the Department of International Relations of the Odessa I. I. Mechnikov National University. Accordingly, the work is structurally divided into eight sections, each of which covers a separate area of the foreign policy of international and national actors. The work is designed for everyone who is interested in foreign policy and international relations – from students to experts.