Assessing mosquito dynamics and dengue transmission in Foz do Iguaçu, Brazil through an enhanced temperature-dependent mathematical model

Abstract Dengue fever is a public health concern that demands efforts to mitigate its impact. We aim to investigate the influence of key parameters temperature-dependent on dengue transmission dynamics in Foz do Iguaçu, a triple border municipality in south Brazil, applying a mathematical model composed by systems of ordinary differential equations. Adjusted model simulation is consistent with the observed data. The effective reproduction number was calculated for detecting changes in dengue transmission over time and to timely detect the beginning of epidemics. Additionally, we explore the potential effects of climate variability on dengue dynamics. Our findings show the importance of vector population dynamics, climate and incidence, contributing to a deeper understanding of dengue transmission dynamics in Foz do Iguaçu and providing a foundation for optimizing intervention strategies, also, in other cities, enhancing our ability to predict and manage dengue outbreaks and supporting public health efforts to control measures.