Forest Fires in the Kemerovo Region — Kuzbass and Forecasting Methods

Forest fires are a serious problem for the entire society and cause significant damage. Often, fires severely destroy the forest ecosystem and threaten the safety of entire settlements. The main cause of ignition in forest areas is the human factor. Therefore, one of the most crucial measures to prevent forest fires is the improvement of the population’s awareness in this sphere. Another important measure is the introduction of a special annual fire safety regime when additional fire safety requirements and restrictions are applied to the population. In order to reduce ignition in forest areas, it is required to forecast the number of forest fires by comparing the statistical data available with various indices affecting forest fires and, therefore, develop more efficient measures to prevent forest fires in the future. The article determines the indices most significantly affecting the increase of forest fires based on the example of the Kemerovo region — Kuzbass. The analysis of statistical data affecting their occurrence and spread provides a number of conclusions. Most significantly, the number of forest fires is affected by monthly average temperatures in April and May; the increase in these indices causes the growth of the number of ignitions. The total fire area is affected most by the promptness of fire extinguishing; i.e., the higher the percentage of fires extinguished in the first 24 hours, the smaller the total area. The amount of funding for fire safety measures is inversely proportional to the number of fire areas; the increase in funding facilitates the reduction of the number and scale of ignitions. The detected dependencies enable forecasting the probable number of forest fires and their areas for the forthcoming period. Therefore, in accordance with the trend analysis, in 2024, approximately 42 forest fires of 2000 ha total area can be expected under the current tendencies. In order to prevent forest fires and minimize their consequences, a comprehensive approach including preventive measures, sufficient funding for forest protection, prompt response to ignitions, and educating the public on fire safety matters in forests is required. Only the combination of all these measures will efficiently address the threat of forest fires.