Tropical tropopause ozone modulated by tropopause height

Abstract. Ozone is a key radiative species near the tropical tropopause, which acts as a gateway to the stratosphere for ascending air. Ozone concentrations at fixed heights in this region fluctuate seasonally and interannually as the strength of stratospheric upwelling varies, influencing local temperatures and stratospheric composition. Models ranging in complexity suggest that an accelerated stratospheric circulation, along with tropospheric expansion, could reduce tropical lower stratospheric ozone following surface warming. These modes of variability are often equated with variability at the tropical tropopause; however, tropopause height varies seasonally and interannually, and it is expected to rise as Earth’s surface warms. Here, we explore how tropical tropopause ozone varies when considering changes to tropopause pressure. We first examine 15 years of observations to distinguish variability at the tropical tropopause ozone from fixed pressure levels on annual-to-interannual timescales. We show that changes to tropopause pressure drive the annual cycle of ozone mixing ratios at the tropical tropopause to be substantially smaller and out of phase from those at 95 or 105 hPa. We then investigate how tropical tropopause ozone responds to surface warming under a range of forcing scenarios using output from the Chemistry-Climate Modeling Initiative (CCMI). We find that pressure-dependent ozone production coupled with tropospheric expansion leads tropical tropopause ozone variability to remain distinct from fixed pressure levels following surface warming, with divergent trends in the strongest forcing scenario. Finally, we show that increases to tropical tropopause ozone correspond with local warming in CCMI projections, while tropospheric expansion increases lower stratospheric ozone.